Vermont’s Bear Population Estimate is Above Goal for Fourth Consecutive Year, New Research Will Explore Why

Vermont’s black bear population is estimated at 6,800 to 8,000 bears based on 2024 data, the most recent available, according to the Vermont Fish & Wildlife Department.

2024 is the fourth consecutive year that the bear population estimate is above the state’s objective of 3,500 to 5,500 bears, according to the department’s population model.

“Our model shows the bear population has remained above our goal of 3,500 to 5,500 bears since 2021, and that matches up with other indicators of population size that we track,” said Jaclyn Comeau, the department’s lead bear biologist.  “High rates of hunter harvest, growing numbers of bears killed by vehicles and increasing conflict between bears and people over the past several years all support that our model is reflecting real population growth.”

To understand what is driving this apparent growth, the department launched a new research study this past summer.  The research will ground-truth model results by gauging how successful Vermont’s bears are at raising their young safely to independence.

“Anecdotally, we are hearing about more bears with large litters of three or four cubs,” said Comeau.  “And in our hunter harvest data we are seeing a larger proportion of young adult bears in the two- or three-year range.  We think this is a result of several years of healthy bears having many cubs, coupled with the resources for those bears to help their cubs survive until they can fend for themselves.  Our next step is to see if that explanation, which we think is likely, lines up with conditions on the ground.”

The new study will test the department’s hypothesis by following 18 adult female bears who were fitted with GPS collars this past summer.  Biologists will visit the collared bears’ dens during the winter to confirm litter size and will then track the family units through the cubs’ first year.  The results will strengthen the department’s understanding of bear reproductive success and whether it might be driving population growth.

“We expect to have some takeaways from this study at the 3- to 5-year mark,” said Comeau.  “In the meantime, we ask Vermonters to keep up all the best practices of living alongside our plentiful black bears.  Keeping trash secured where bears cannot get it, protecting backyard chickens with an electric fence and keeping birdfeeders down until there is consistent snow on the ground are the basic responsibilities of living in bear country.”

Vermont’s bear hunting season runs from September 1 through November 14 this year.  Hunters are allowed to harvest bears that have been collared for this study.  If they do so, hunters are asked to contact the department and to treat the GPS collars with care until they can be returned to a state biologist.  Hunters are reminded to pay close attention before taking a shot to avoid harvesting a bear accompanied by cubs.

“We ask the hunting community to keep up their good track record of bringing harvested bears to a biological checking station, and sending in a tooth sample from their harvest for analysis as is required by law,” said Comeau.  “Hunters’ support is essential for us to keep building our population model on good data.  By the same token, in the unlikely event that a hunter harvests one of the bears collared for this study, we’ll depend on that hunter’s cooperation to retrieve the bear’s collar and the data it contains.”